Victoria Real Estate Market Report Update
August 2021 – Low Inventory – High Prices
Low inventory and high prices continue to be the story in the Victoria real estate market.
With 52% fewer listings in July 2021 than July 2020 we continue to be in a seller’s market. The chart above, which tracks homes sales to active listing count is an indicator of housing supply and demand. When the ratio between them is below 10% it’s a buyers’ market, in the 15-20% range it is typically considered a balanced market, but when it is above 25%, it is a seller’s market. The July ratio was at 80% in June, which strongly favours sellers, but is lower than the frenzied market we were experiencing in March.
The number of single-family homes that were listed and sold is down (835 in July 2021 vs 979 July 2020), while sales of condominiums continue to be up year over year. The benchmark price for single family homes was up 18.9 % compared to July of last year, but only 1.7% up from June. Condominiums had a more modest increase of 8.1% compared to the same time last year.
TD Economist, Rishi Sondi, agrees. “March seems to have been the absolute peak of the mountain in terms of activity, a couple of months ahead of what we had anticipated in our outlook released last winter,” In the report “Canadian housing outlook: Comin’ down the mountain.” Report, Sondi went on to say “Now that sales have begun their correction in earnest, the interesting question becomes how steep the decline will be. Beyond merely unwinding from what were clearly unstainable levels.”
While the TD report’s headline is attention grabbing, we don’t anticipate a landslide effect on pricing in the Greater Victoria market. We anticipate the number of sales in August will be a bit less than July numbers, with an uptick in the number of sales in the fall. We believe that pricing will more or less follow provincial trends with continued increases in the fourth quarter before we head into a more balanced market in 2022.
For a link to the full Victoria Real Estate Board report as well links to recent reports from the BC Real Estate Association and the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation click on the links to the right.
If you have any questions about buying or selling in the Greater Victoria including Oak Bay, Sidney, Saanich and the West shore, just contact us. We are here to help.
Hal Decter, LLB & Audra Poole